Article: Crude Oil Could Bounce, But ...

From "Brad's Desktop" at Hard Assets Investor: http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/component/content/article/3/1657-crude-oil-could-bounce-but-.html?year=2009&month=07&Itemid=39

Again good analysis. We've got oil at the .382 retrace to its lows and also see resistance at about $64/65 which might become a pivot. Given that oil's decline has begun to look a little disorderly it's giving more concern that it may want a C wave or 5th wave down still.

Article: The Gold Market’s Tech Clues - Features and Interviews - Hard Assets Investor

http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/features-and-interviews/1/1639-the-gold-markets-tech-clues.html

Looks like good analysis (even without the Elliott Wave or cycles).

This is also a neat way to post article references from my iPhone!

Groundbreaking WSJ Story on Gold -- Seeking Alpha

Seekingalpha.com article: Groundbreaking-wsj-story-on-gold

Isn't this rather bearish for gold?! My Elliott Wave analysis of it isn't based on such factors but this looks consistent. Just wait until taxi drivers and waitrons are recommending gold. Oh wait, maybe they are - in Germany you can now buy gold at vending machines ....!

Given Tim's admitted performance with UNG (see prior post - he bought at $45, watched it get to $60, sold at $25, now wondering where it bottoms), should we be inspired by his endorsement of buying gold?

Actually, reading toward the end of the article, reminds me - as sobering as this is, my SWHC is holding in there and giving signs it may come out of a recent triangle to the upside. Assuming it really does get to new highs, I'll have mixed feelings of course, but it's better to be on the right side of a trade.

Article - Natural Gas ETF: Nowhere to Go but Up, Yet It Keeps Going Down -- Seeking Alpha

http://seekingalpha.com/article/147852-natural-gas-etf-nowhere-to-go-but-up-yet-it-keeps-going-down

Someone tell Tim it can be a buy at $12.00. But this time, to use better stop loss trade management - what was he thinking, not to TMAR (take money and run) some profits at $60 and then move stop at least to break-even?!

The info about UNG actually is shocking, way too much speculation --> distribution, just like the tulip bubble.

Assuming we get the trend reversal we're looking for, will have to see if it can do better than retrace to $14. From $12 to $14 may not seem great to many who bought above $14, but that's exactly why UNG will start getting overhang resistance there. For those of us who buy around $12, it will be a nice return of around, is it 15% just on the plain ETF? With little risk since we have defined the trade parameters and will use confirmation from a reversal pattern with volumes.

Upside from there will be chancey, because even a first wave up is subject to a deep 2nd wave pullback.

Call options expiring this Friday are losing premium FAST. I bet a lot of pros rolled over any, last Tuesday. I don't even try to give options advice, it's very complicated and there are better sites to help with that. Maybe the odds now favor a quick dig to $12 soon, followed by bounce into opex, will see.

Commercial Real Estate Begs for Bailout: Old Whine in New Bottle -- Seeking Alpha

http://seekingalpha.com/article/148079-commercial-real-estate-begs-for-bailout-old-whine-in-new-bottle?

There is a joke lurking here, something about separation of church and state ... maybe the unconscious welding of them together. Who needs to meditate, pray, or seek a higher power, if they just get to recast government in that role and get it to grant their every wish?! Or bail them out of their problems, even if self-inflicted?!

One of the core teachings of the I Ching, the Tao Teh Ching, most (or all) core spiritual systems, and physics, is that actions have corollary consequences. It's a fact of nature, of course. It's the effort to extricate oneself from the consequences that ripples out in so many ways!

Well, creating drama, tragedy, and plenty of comedy too ....!

Okay, that's my philosophical statement for the month, LOL.

UNG daily chart

There may be an additional channel line to add to UNG chart, as I've marked with a red line onto the chart I posted at main site yesterday morning; it parallels the lower one that I had marked underneath the recent lows.

Silver; NATGAS

Silver continuing its path down, which we're expecting to take place over a long time. I don't know that I'll track the movements under a magnifying glass - just pointing out that it seems to be leading gold down. As for natural gas, the $NATGAS weekly and monthly charts below continue to suggest that the underlying commodity still wants to get down closer to $3. It looks like that price has broken under the same comparable triangle that UNG already broke under. So it's still very possible for UNG to complete its low before $NATGAS does.

$RUT, $SOX

Some people seeing H&S in the Russell 2000? From an EW standpoing it looks to me like it shares the EW counts suggested for the DJIA and SPX. Now, for a bullish idea, we can say it completed a fifth wave up of some level and now that it pulled back to prior 4th wave level, it's ready for the next moves up ... so maybe it just finished a smaller wave 1 up and ready for wave 2 pullback from it, ,and then on up in wave 3 of the next huge leg up. Then again, the rally can have been a 4th wave, or a "B" wave, in either case pointing lower (but not necessary to a H&S type target unless part of a zigzag where the next drop is a C that will be about equal to the A leg into the March lows).

Also below is $SOX, it's been a while since I posted on it - I've added trendlines to the monthly chart.

Equities, dollar, sentiment & breadth charts

Interesting volumes in TRAN. If it's a valid B wave tri, then it actually hasn't broken to a bearish tri trap ...

GS Options

Interesting article at Schaeffer's Daily Option Blog, Ratio Backspread Trader focused on Goldman Sachs, on a bearish options play appearing in the data for GS and how it is structured: http://bit.ly/80e8V (and noting GS stock has been challenging 20-month MA that hasn't been overcome since 2008)

Euro, US Dollar

Just as the dollar did not rise significantly today, the euro did not drop significantly. We'll have to see if it gets support at the 50 dma and lower BB. The indicators are weak, and I've been thinking it heads lower, but I don't see it breaking yet.

Bonds continuing to look good in rally from symmetry targets

Nice to see TLT really moving. There "should be" chart resistance at and just above $97, and then of course the 200 dma. Above is $102 which can be a target for the whole move. But there can be higher Fib retrace levels to target, and then there's the wild idea that it can make yet one more new high - but let's be conservative first.

Some may be starting to TMAR into the chart price resistance levels but the buying volume was strong today so I'm not convinced that it's at target such as fives waves up in an A wave for example. With the volumes and that bit if a gap it could theoretically be in either a wave 3 or C wave. And the indicators are still looking good.