UnbiasedTrading - No Bull, No Bear, No Bias (tm)

UNG & Natural Gas, bubbling again-?

2009-11-25T22:31:00.004-05:00

Borrowing Tony's Nat Gas chart - note says downtrending but 8 dema just poked over 34 dema so may be enough to turn it? Also below is UNG - its CMF indicator less negative but not positive yet so gotta be careful, if buying consider your stop placement or use other good money mgmt methods. I think the indicators can turn but since this is bottom picking, it's still a bit dicey. But when it's ready for next wave up, should be a good one.

One theory, it's going to bounce and then one more wave or zigzag down so allow for that possibility. If it's right then should have some bounce first - JMO of course (thinking UNG could be in large diagonal needing one more new low after bounce, tho not extremely certain of it). Volume wasn't super but was not bad on UNG as it rose today.

Article: Option Plays for Falling Gold Prices

2009-11-25T22:07:00.003-05:00

Some thoughts on using options to hedge or play a drop in gold prices, with the idea of not taking on too much risk: http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/November/falling-gold-prices.html

McClellan charts

2009-11-25T19:37:00.003-05:00

MO not making new highs. SI consolidated - either up or down out of that, either way to be respected!

Advance/decline: NYAD, NAAD

2009-11-25T19:08:00.003-05:00

Will see what Terry Laundry's A/D shows, breakout or not. The ones I can generate at Stockcharts.com don't show a b/o.

Dollar, Gold

2009-11-25T08:32:00.000-05:00

Just some comments I posted in reply to a question at UBT:

The USD can go down to spend a day underneath that 74.75, then look for reversal day closing above prior day's high. As for 73.58, it's based on a Fib extension in case it's the C of an ABC flat - those notes should be on on on my USD charts, look at both day and weekly charts I've posted.

I think failing to rebound smartly from the 74.75 test is not sign of strength. Tony Caldaro made good comments on USD recently, maybe in last night postings at his blog comments. About the USD maybe dropping with stocks in initial drop of equities C wave down, then the dollar can rise as stocks continue down. Much later, the USD dropping again. I'm paraphrasing though. Bottom line, I'm moving away from idea the dollar will rally above 92 - but near term, both dollar and gold are reaching extremes and should trend reverse soon. Look, gold is close to the 1185, and to the 1192 and 1200. BTW, there's a reversal time window for gold this week too - though can't guarantee that alone would make a major top for gold, could be intermediate.

NASDAQ CompQ

2009-11-24T21:35:00.005-05:00

Borrowing Tony Caldaro's charts of CompQ (thanks Tony! - see his site link at right) - I can't guarantee if it'll make its own small h&s with a trap door pointing down from here. But the risk looks greater now. Tony isn't showing where he'd mark the c to complete B, but I'm sure once a trend reversal pattern prints then he'll do it. Meantime the Nasdaq is obviously at price resistance still so I can't recommend trying to go long fronting a breakout that has reasons not to show up!

Crude oil testing support

2009-11-24T19:15:00.003-05:00

Crude oil stalled at the Fib cluster as you can see on the longer term, monthly chart. The daily chart shows it testing support though - which is a convenient place to gauge whether it loses support. Maybe the EW is supposed to be bullish but I think it's also valid to consider shorting or hedging unless it breaks out to the upside.

Gold uptrend intact, still focusing on $1192/1200

2009-11-24T18:59:00.002-05:00

The indicators are confirming the price uptrend, so far so good and still focused on that $1192-1200 area:

T Theory Update: "no need to chase strength"

2009-11-24T04:32:00.004-05:00

Remember to read Terry's updates each evening at http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html

Here's what he posted there last night:

Download Latest T Theory Chart and Data
Monday Nov 23th Comment: Today's advance was constructive for my bullish forecast but an upside breakout is still desired. After the upside breakout a short pullback is likely so no need to chase strength. See possible T in chart. Terry

When you click to see it, he's showing a possible new T pointing to high in late November. But it isn't confirmed yet by a breakout, as he mentions.

Interesting swing analysis, equities

2009-11-21T15:27:00.005-05:00

If it might prove useful - not sure, but here's the info: Alpha Investment Management, http://alphaim.net/power_newsletter.html.

Financials/XLF

2009-11-21T08:25:00.002-05:00

The financials fell back after that swing high .618 retracement to the earlier high on daily chart. The RSI indicator was a little strong but if the most recent swing high holds, XLF should lead the markets lower.

Rolling top; & T-bills go negative

2009-11-19T21:45:00.003-05:00

At Jesse's Café Américain: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Negative RSI Divergence study by Marty Chenard

2009-11-19T21:41:00.002-05:00

By Marty Chenard at Safe Haven | Is There a Negative RSI Divergence
Problem? - http://www.safehaven.com/article-15055.htm

Nasdaq & its indicators

2009-11-19T19:11:00.003-05:00

Measuring by QQQQ, it's still above the .618 Fib retrace to 2007 so that would be good confirmation, to have it drop under that. Its ratio to SPX hasn't been very strong lately - weakening. And its A/D line is definitely far weaker than the one (NYSE?) Terry Laundry is using. I'm reading all this as supportive of calling this rally done - just gotta see price chart pattern confirmation.

% above 200 dma

2009-11-17T20:45:00.000-05:00

Still quite high, and the CCI turned up from down to testing midline. If it does drop, it could go quite far down before testing its own 200 dma!

% above 50 dma

2009-11-17T20:34:00.001-05:00

Interesting that the NYSE is stronger here, but may be doing only a kissback to its own 200 dma. The Nasdaq one looks weaker (unless it's going to try coming back up):

McClellan

2009-11-17T20:25:00.001-05:00

Did move up though can be seen as testing up to where there's trendline resistance still:

Advance/decline

2009-11-17T20:20:00.001-05:00

These A/D charts don't show a new breakout (at least not yet) - actually s slight drop today:

Natural Gas

2009-11-16T22:44:00.003-05:00

I'm really not certain if $NATGAS will need another interim low or not. But UNG was so close to double bottom that I tweeted about my buying a little on Friday. I do hope it doesn't scrape lower - will see! Some of the levels and lines on my longer term charts look still working even though it previously had gone longer.

Dr. Brett: using TRIN intraday

2009-11-16T22:03:00.002-05:00

TraderFeed: A NYSE TICK Primer: How to Assess Intraday Sentiment, by Dr. Brett Steenbarger, at http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/12/nyse-tick-primer-how-to-assess-intraday.html.

T Theory update

2009-11-16T21:08:00.003-05:00

From Terry Laundry: http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html:

Download Latest T Theory Chart and Data

Monday Nov 16th Comment: Market is following my T Theory forecast as per Sunday's discussion but still needs a clear upside breakout in the green AD Line to clinch the projection of a six month uptrend until May 2010. This should occur shortly.

=============

Obviously Terry is confident that A/D line will b/o similar to his oscillator. Well - I'll remain flexible on that issue. So we'll see!

Oil & gasoline

2009-11-16T18:23:00.004-05:00

Definitely poised to make a new uptrend if it can. If not, then be careful if it probes for another wave down (I'm concerned if that may have been a leading diagonal down). No doubt the dollar will play some role in this.

McClellan

2009-11-16T17:23:00.003-05:00

Definitely pushed higher but not necessarily guaranteeing higher. But we'll need to see what today did for Terry Laundry's oscillator, at his T Theory site this evening.

VIX "not normal"

2009-11-16T07:40:00.001-05:00

Bill Luby posted this article, Volatility in 2009: This Isn't Normal -- at Seeking Alpha, http://seekingalpha.com/article/173030-volatility-in-2009-this-isn-t-normal (11/13/09). It's probably at his blog too. Good article, here's a quote:

What is particularly noteworthy about this chart, however, is that during 2009 the VIX is actually 3.8% higher than it was in 2008, in which realized volatility has actually fallen 24.7%.

Personally I wonder if it's because of the volatility ETFs and general increased popularity of trading on the bearish side (VIX) calls - just a thought. Anyway Bill's insights are always worth reading. Remember his VIX and More blog is always in the sites list at right.

Interpreting - either there are many too bearish and the market has been climbing a wall of worry. Or it's a case of negative divergence suggesting the rally won't last. I'd like to better understand Bill's opinion of that - again, check his blog from time to time. I'm inclined to the latter interpretation.

But for SPX predictions we should also watch Terry Laundry's work, and I think Andre Gratian is seeing similar. From an EW standpoint, could be the B wave wants higher, and will have to see what it means for Nasdaq. Or that we're starting that idea of a large Wave V (circle) EDT up to monstrous new highs - I still have trouble seeing that as fitting into the long wave cycles. But there is that Benner-Fibonacci cycle saying an interim high in 2010... Well, we've got the Dow 10,334 now so other than resonating these LT Fibs, anything more than that by the markets would be saying that equities push that much higher yet.

In which case it would be reasonable to look at VIX for signs of new lows as precursor, IMO.

NNVC

2009-11-15T13:24:00.004-05:00

Allan at his All Allan blog keeps touting NNVC. Since I looked it's been dropping. Now they speculate it may be doing a 62% wave 2 retrace. I haven't had time to analyze - maybe it's possible. If so then can be good opportunity...